2023-03-30

Objective

  • The objective of this analysis is to see if there is any sort of difference between shot locations in the Chicago Bulls’ 2017-2020 seasons. And if so, to determine the reasoning.

Shot Locations 2017-2020

  • These plots lead me to believe that there were significantly more shots made behind the 3 point line in 2020, as the density of shots in front of the line is significantly lower. Let’s see if that is the case.

2019 Shot Density

## Chicago Bulls 2018-19 shot data

2020 Shot Density

Overlaid Plots

Observations

  • As seen in the overlaid plots, the top marginal plot shows that the difference between the years does not differ at all. However, we can see that the marginal plot on the right side does differ.

  • This shows that there IS a slightly higher density of shots being made behind the 3-point line. However, it does not seem to be a significant difference.

  • Let’s approach this in another way.

Number of Shots Per Year

  • Let’s check the number of shots per season for any discrepancies:

    • Shots made in 2017: 7138

    • Shots made in 2018: 7285

    • Shots made in 2019: 7205

    • Shots made in 2020: 5762

Conclusion

– From the previous slide, there is a clear difference in the amount of shots in 2020 compared to prior years; with a difference of nearly 1500 shots!

– The reason for this is very likely the suspension of the 2019-2020 season due to the COVID-19 lockdown.

Time Remaining vs Shot Locations

  • Since my initial test on the 2020 data failed, I decided to run another test: checking to see if there was any sort of correlation between time remaining and shot location.

  • I created an animated plot to show this relationship.

Shot Locations by Time Remaining

## Chicago Bulls 2018-19 shot data

Zero Seconds vs Eleven Seconds

## Chicago Bulls 2018-19 shot data

Observations

  • I noticed that in the 0 and 1 minute remaining categories, there were more shots being made, but from less dense locations.
    • Shots being made from where ever the ball is to try and get it in before the quarter is over.
  • When there is more time left, less, but more precise, shots seemed to be made.
    • Example: more dense under the hoop and at the 3 point line; less outliers.

Extra

  • I attempted to make more observations with both:

    -A heatmap

    -Side-by-side “Made vs Not Made” plots

  • However, I found neither of these to be useful in obtaining any sort of new information.

2019 Heatmap

  • The color is far too light to be able to make any sort of conclusions with the heatmap.
## Chicago Bulls 2018-19 shot data

Made vs Missed Shot plots

  • All I can tell from these plots is that there seems to be more overall shots missed than made.